In the fall of 1968 Democratic presidential candidate Hubert Humphrey was in a fix. He needed to lose a war to win an election. Polling indicated he would lose badly to Richard Nixon, who claimed to have a secret weapon that would bring the war in Vietnam to a successful conclusion, a “Peace with Honor”. Humphrey represented the administration responsible for escalating the conflict, so any change from the current policy would be deemed a retreat. But Vietnam had become an anchor around his campaign. The polls indicated plummeting domestic support, and victory could no longer be reasonably defined. Nixon and Kissinger were well aware of his dilemma. They anxiously awaited the dropping of what they termed “The Peace Bomb”. Pundits referred to this as a Halloween surprise. Today we just say October. It was actually on Friday, November 1st, when the Johnson Administration declared a halt to the bombing. Whether Halloween, October, or November, in Washington, “surprises” are always dropped on a Friday.

Nixon used Anna Chennault, a loyal campaign supporter, to get word to South Vietnamese president Nguyen Van Thieu that any peace talks were a sell-out of his country and he would get a much better deal with Nixon in the White House. When Lyndon Johnson got wind of this, through illegal wiretaps on the Nixon campaign, he referred to the matter as “treason”. Some historians agree. I reject this label. First, South Vietnam was not our enemy. If they had spoiled the peace talks by approaching the North, our enemy, it could be seen as a betrayal, but not the South, our ally. Second, Thieu was no dummy. He was well aware any summit-style talks would mean the end for his country and would have opposed them anyway. Chennault merely provided him with a ray of hope. Thieu publicly rejected the talks and the Halloween surprise fell apart. Nixon won. Thieu won. South Vietnam won… for another 7 years. Another 7 years, with 18,000 American lives lost and billions of dollars wasted. Another 7 years of unknown numbers of Vietnamese lives lost. Another 7 years of Americans on television casting blame.

The loss of South Vietnam was serious blow to American prestige internationally and domestically. And what was gained by the additional 7 years? The answer, however unpleasant, is that important reputations in Washington were spared for a little while longer. Bad foreign policy could be disguised for a little while longer. Bad military strategy and tactics could be corrected, or at least improved, for a little while longer. But to paraphrase Nat King Cole, “you can weep and sigh, you can say unfair, you can almost die of despair, but if victory ain’t there… it ain’t there.”